The Cromford Report

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The Cromford Report ...

is owned and produced by Cromford Associates LLC, an Arizona limited liability company managed by Mike Orr and based in Mesa AZ.

Mike holds a masters degree in Mathematics from the University of Oxford in England and spent 31 years in the computer industry, working for IBM, Amdahl, Splash Technology and the Santa Cruz Operation. In his most recent positions he was President of Tarantella and CEO of Mobilearia.

He first started investing in real estate in 1976 and left the computer industry to focus on real estate in 2002.

Contact

mike@cromfordreport.com

Active List Price $/SF Premium is the percentage by which the average list price per square foot for active listings exceeds the average sale price per square foot for homes sold This Month.

Active Listings means the number of MLS listings marked active or active with a contingent offer on the date in question. This will fluctuate on any particular day. We take a random sample during that day.

Active Listings Excluding UCB means the number of MLS listings market active on the date in question, excluding any listings that are under contract accepting back-up offers. This will fluctuate on any particular day. We take a random sample during that day.

Active Listings $/SF is the average list price per square foot for Active Listings (as defined above). Note that this is not an "average of ratios", but the true average list price of all the square feet of living space represented by the active listings.

Annual Growth in Pending Listings means the percentage difference between Pending Listings today versus the same date last year.

Annual Growth in Sales per Month means the percentage difference between Sales per Month (7 Day Average) today versus the same date last year.

Annual Median Price as % Peak means the Median Price - Annual Sales as a percentage of the maximum Median Price - Annual Sales previously recorded. If we are currently at a maximum then this will read 100%. In a rising market this figure will be close to 100%. In a falling market it indicates how far the median price has fallen since the peak level.

Annual Sales means the sales which closed This Year (as defined below). Also known as Sales per Year.

Annual Sales $/SF means the average sale price per square foot for homes sold This Year . Note that it is not an "average of ratios", but the true average sale price of all the square feet of living space represented by the homes included in Annual Sales. We use today's actual Monthly Sales, not a rolling average.

Annual Sales $/SF as % Peak means the Annual Sales $/SF as a percentage of the maximum Annual Sales $/SF previously recorded. If we are currently at a maximum then this will read 100%. In a rising market this figure will be close to 100%. In a falling market it indicates how far the market pricing has fallen since the peak level.

Appreciation - Annual $/SF compares the Annual Sales $/SF for today with that for the same date last year. This is the average annual appreciation based on comparing the most recent annual period with one year earlier.

Appreciation - Long Term compares the Annual Sales $/SF for today with that for January 1, 2001 and determines the annual appreciation rate between the two.

Appreciation - Monthly Median $ compares the Median Price - Monthly Sales for today with that for the same date last year. This is the annual appreciation based on comparing the most recent monthly median sales price with the same month last year.

Appreciation - Annual Median $ compares the Median Price - Annual Sales for today with that for the same date last year. This is the annual appreciation based on comparing the most recent annual median sales price with the same month last year.

Appreciation - Monthly $/SF compares the Monthly Sales $/SF for today with that for the same date last year. This is the average annual appreciation based on comparing the most recent monthly period with the same month last year.

Average Price - Annual Sales is the average gross price recorded as paid for homes sold This Year.

Average Price - Monthly Sales is the average gross price recorded as paid for homes sold This Month.

Average Sale Price % List compares the average sale price and average final list price for homes sold This Month. It shows how close the final sales price was to the list price that was in effect at the time the listing closed. Of course, this may be different from the initial list price.

Average Sq. Ft. - Annual Sales means the average living space in square feet for homes sold This Year .

Average Sq. Ft. - Monthly Sales means the average living space in square feet for homes sold This Month.

AWC Listings - now known as UCB listings - means the number of MLS listings marked active but under contract soliciting backup offers. This will fluctuate a little on any particular day and we take a random sample.

Contract Ratio indicates how "hot" a market is. It specifically measures the number of completed sales contracts relative to the supply of active listings. It is defined as 100 x (Pending Listings + UCB Listings) / Active Listings Excluding UCB. The higher the number the greater the buying activity relative to supply. If this number rises then it is a sign of growing contract activity and a positive signal for sellers. Conversely a falling number is a sign of a weakening market - either supply of active listings is increasing or contract activity is slowing, or both. In a balanced market for normal market segments, the value of the Contract Ratio is usually between 30 and 60. When it lies below 20 the market can be considered "slow" or a "cold market". Above 60 can be considered a "hot market" and when it moves above 100 we regard this as evidence of a "buying frenzy". In high-end luxury market segments the normal level is lower, usually lying between 15 and 25.

Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the demand for resale homes in the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more demand than usual, while values below 100 indicate less demand than usual. A value of 100 indicates the demand is close to normal.

Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

Cromford Supply Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the supply of resale homes to the market. It is derived from the trends in active listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values above 100 indicate more supply than usual, while values below 100 indicate less supply than usual. A value of 100 indicates the supply is close to normal.

Days on Market - Monthly Sales means the average cumulative days on market for sales which closed This Month (as defined below).

Days on Market - Active Listings is the average cumulative days on market for Active Listings (as defined above).

Days Inventory indicates how many days it would take to sell all the Active Listings if they were to sell at the rate implied by Annual Sales and assuming no new listings became active. It equals Days in Last Year x Active Listings / Annual Sales.

Dollar Volume - Annual Sales is the total dollar value of the homes closed This Year.

Dollar Volume - Monthly Sales is the total dollar value of the homes closed This Month.

Lender-owned % Active Listings is a measure of the percentage of the active listings that consist of lender-owned properties. The properties are identified by examining the "remarks", "realtor remarks" and "special listing conditions" fields within the ARMLS database, cross-checked with the tax records. The "special listing conditions" field is intended to identify such properties but is not a sufficiently reliable indicator on its own since a large number of properties are incorrectly flagged.

Lender-owned % Monthly Sales is a measure of the percentage of the monthly sales that consist of lender-owned properties. The properties are identified by examining the "remarks", "realtor remarks" and "special listing conditions" fields within the ARMLS database, cross-checked with the tax records. The "special listing conditions" field is intended to identify such properties but is not a sufficiently reliable indicator on its own since a large number of properties are incorrectly flagged.

Listing Success Rate is the percentage of listings that closed with a sale rather than expiring or being canceled. It compares the number of listings sold This Month with the number of listings that were sold, expired or canceled in the same period. This percentage gives a useful indication of what percentage of terminated listings closed successfully.

Long Term Appreciation compares Average Sale Price per sq. ft. for today with that for Jan 1, 2001 and computes the annual rate of appreciation over the entire period. Normally we use the sales during the month that ended on Dec 31, 2000 as the baseline. However if there were fewer than 20 sales during this month we use all the sales during 2000 in order to avoid possible distortion due to the small sample.

Market Distress Index is a value that provides a measure of the percentage of the market that consists of pre-foreclosures, lender-owned properties and short-sales. Both active listings and monthly sales are considered for this. The properties are identified by examining the "remarks", "realtor remarks" and "special listing conditions" fields within the ARMLS database, cross-checked with the tax records. The "special listing conditions" field is intended to identify such properties but is not a sufficiently reliable indicator on its own since a large number of properties are incorrectly flagged.

Median Price - Annual Sales is based on the homes included in Annual Sales, and is the price point which separates the higher half of the sales prices from the lower half. It is usually substantially lower than the Average Price - Annual Sales, since sales of large expensive homes have little impact on the median but a large impact on the average.

Median Price - Monthly Sales is based on the homes included in Monthly Sales, and is the price point which separates the higher half of the sales prices from the lower half. It is usually substantially lower than the Average Price - Monthly Sales, since sales of large expensive homes have little impact on the median but a large impact on the average.

Monthly Median Price as % Peak means the Median Price - Monthly Sales as a percentage of the maximum Median Price - Monthly Sales previously recorded. If we are currently at a maximum then this will read 100%. In a rising market this figure will be close to 100%. In a falling market it indicates how far the median price has fallen since the peak level.

Monthly Sales means the sales which closed This Month (as defined below).

Monthly Sales $/SF means the average sale price per square foot for homes sold This Month. Note that it is not an "average of ratios", but the true average sale price of all the square feet of living space represented by the homes included in Monthly Sales. We use today's actual Monthly Sales, not a rolling average.

Monthly Sales $/SF as % Peak means the Monthly Sales $/SF as a percentage of the maximum Monthly Sales $/SF previously recorded. If we are currently at a maximum then this will read 100%. In a rising market this figure will be close to 100%. In a falling market it indicates how far the market pricing has fallen since the peak level.

Months Supply indicates how many months it would take to sell all the Active Listings if they were to sell at the rate implied by Sales per Month (7 Day Average).

Pending Listings means the number of MLS listings under pending contract where escrow has not yet closed. This will vary during any given day. We take a random sample during the day in question.

Pending Listings $/SF is the average list price per square foot for Pending Listings (as defined above). Note that this is not an "average of ratios", but the true average list price of all the square feet of living space represented by the pending listings.

Pre-foreclosure % Active Listings is a measure of the percentage of the active listings that consist of pre-foreclosures and short sales. The properties are identified by examining the "remarks", "realtor remarks" and "special listing conditions" fields within the ARMLS database. The "special listing conditions" field is intended to identify such properties but is not a sufficiently reliable indicator on its own since a large number of properties are incorrectly flagged.

Pre-foreclosure % Monthly Sales is a measure of the percentage of the monthly sales that consist of pre-foreclosures and short sales. The properties are identified by examining the "remarks", "realtor remarks" and "special listing conditions" fields within the ARMLS database. The "special listing conditions" field is intended to identify such properties but is not a sufficiently reliable indicator on its own since a large number of properties are incorrectly flagged.

Sales per Month means the number of sales which closed This Month (as defined below). Also known as Monthly Sales.

Sales per Month (7 Day Average) means the average Sales per Month over the last seven days. When sales are measured daily, we sometimes use the average for Sales per Month over 7 days in order to eliminate distortion effects caused by sales tending to close more frequently on specific days of the week. We use this figure to compute months supply, to avoid excessive volatility in the month supply statistics.

Sales per Year means the number of sales which closed This Year (as defined below). Also known as Annual Sales.

This Month means the period which starts with today's date last month and ends at midnight yesterday. If today's date did not exist last month, the 1st of the current month is used instead. This monthly period will be between 28 and 31 days depending on the number of days in the previous calendar month. "This Month" only refers to a single calendar month when today happens to be the 1st of a month. On all other dates "This Month" refers to a period that is split between 2 calendar month. For example, on July 14, "This Month" means June 14 to July 13, but on August 1, "This Month" means July 1 to July 31.

This Weeks Sales % Avg is a percentage comparison of sales during the last seven days with the average number of sales for the same dates in the years 2001 onwards.

This Year means the period which starts with today's date last year and ends at midnight yesterday. This period is either 365 or 366 days depending on whether the previous year was a leap year.

UCB Listings - formerly known as AWC listings - means listings marked active but under contract soliciting backup offers. This will fluctuate a little on any particular day and we take a random sample.

Active Listings

The total number of listings with status active or under contract soliciting backup offers.

Annual Appreciation

The percentage change in average sales price per square foot over 12 months.

The average sale price per square foot for This Month is compared with the same period exactly one year ago, and the difference is expressed as a percentage.

Annual Average Sale Price

The average sale price for This Year.

Average List Price per Square Foot

The average list price per square foot for homes that closed escrow either This Month or This Year

Average Sale Price per Square Foot

The average sale price per square foot for homes in one of 3 categories:

  • Active Listings as of the date of the dashboard
  • Pending Listings as of the date of the dashboard
  • Closed Listings - homes that closed escrow either This Month

Average List Price $/SF Trend Last 12 Months

A chart showing:

  • List Price $/SF for Active Listings over the last 12 months
  • List Price $/SF for Pending Listings over the last 12 months
  • List Price $/SF for Closed Listings - homes that closed escrow during This Month for each date plotted
  • Sale Price $/SF for Closed Listings - homes that closed escrow during This Month for each date plotted

Average Sale Price per Square Foot - Recent Trend

The percentage difference between Monthly Average Sale Price per Sq Ft and Annual Average Sale Price per Sq Ft.

The average sale price per square foot for This Month is compared with the average sale price per square foot for This Year, and the difference is expressed as a percentage.

Average Size in Square Feet

The average living space in square feet for homes sold This Month or This Year.

Canceled Listings

The number of listings that were canceled This Month.

Canceled Listings 4 Week Change

The percentage change over the last 4 weeks in the number of listings canceled.

Cromford Demand Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the demand position within the market. It is derived from the trends in pending and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a weakness in demand, while values above 100 indicate a stronger than normal demand. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

Cromford Market Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the balance of the market. It is derived from the trends in pending, active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a buyer's market, while values above 100 indicate a seller's market. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

Cromford Supply Index™ is a value that provides a short term forecast for the supply position within the market. It is derived from the trends in active and sold listings compared with historical data over the previous four years. Values below 100 indicate a shortage of supply, while values above 100 indicate an excess supply. A value of 100 indicates a balanced market.

Days Inventory Based on Annual Sales

The number of days it would take to sell all the currently active listings based on the rate of sales over the last year.

Days Inventory Based on Monthly Sales

The number of days it would take to sell all the currently active listings based on the rate of sales over the last month.

Days on Market - Active Listings

For the active listings on the date of the dashboard, the average cumulative number of days the listing has been active. This excludes days when the listing was temporarily off market or pending.

Days on Market - Homes Sold This Month

For the homes that sold This Month, the average cumulative number of days the closed listing was active. This excludes days when the listing was temporarily off market or pending.

Dollar Volume

The total dollar value of all sales This Month or This Year.

Expired Listings

The number of listings that expired This Month.

Expired Listings 4 Week Change

The percentage change in the number of expired listings over the last 4 weeks.

Last 12 Months

A chart showing measurements taken from one year ago to the date on the dashboard.

List Price Premium

The percentage by which the average list price per square foot for active listings exceeds the average sale price per square foot for homes sold This Month.

Listing Success Rate

A comparison between the number of listings sold and the total number of listings closed (sold, expired or canceled) in the last month, expressed as a percentage.

Monthly Average Sale Price

The average sale price for This Month.

Months Supply Based on Annual Sales

The number of months it would take to sell all the currently active listings based on the rate of sales over the last year.

Months Supply Based on Monthly Sales

The number of months it would take to sell all the currently active listings based on the rate of sales over the last month.

Pending Listings

The total number of listings with status pending.

Percentage of List Price

The actual sale price divided by the final list price, expressed as a percentage, for sales This Month.

Sale Price / Sq Ft

The average sale price per square foot for homes that closed during a defined period. This period is usually either "This Month" or "This Year"

Sales

The total number of sales that closed This Month or This Year.

This Month means the period which starts with today's date last month and ends at midnight yesterday. If today's date did not exist last month, the 1st of the current month is used instead. This monthly period will be between 28 and 31 days depending on the number of days in the previous calendar month. "This Month" only refers to a single calendar month when today happens to be the 1st of a month. On all other dates "This Month" refers to a period that is split between 2 calendar month. For example, on July 14, "This Month" means June 14 to July 13, but on August 1, "This Month" means July 1 to July 31.

This Year means the period which starts with today's date last year and ends at midnight yesterday. This period is either 365 or 366 days depending on whether the previous year was a leap year. For example, on October 24, 2004 "This year" means the period October 24, 2003 to October 23, 2004. On January 1 2007, "This Year" refers to the previous calendar year January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2006.

4 Week Change in Active Listings

A comparison between the number of listings active today and the number active four weeks ago.

4 Week Change in Pending Listings

A comparison between the number of listings pending today and the number pending four weeks ago.

Major Cities

These are cities with typical annual sales of single family detached homes in excess of 1,000. They are measured daily. They comprise:

Avondale, Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Goodyear, Mesa, Peoria, Phoenix, Queen Creek, Scottsdale, Surprise, Tempe

Secondary Cities

These are cities with typical annual sales of single family detached homes between 200 and 1,000. They are measured weekly. They comprise:

Anthem, Apache Junction, Arizona City, Buckeye, Casa Grande, Cave Creek, El Mirage, Fountain Hills, Gold Canyon, Laveen, Litchfield Park, Maricopa, Paradise Valley, Sun City, Sun City West, Sun Lakes, Tolleson

Small Cities

These are cities with typical annual sales of single family detached homes between 50 and 200. They are measured monthly. They comprise:

Carefree, Coolidge, Desert Hills, Eloy, Florence, New River, Rio Verde, Tonopah, Waddell, Wickenburg, Wittmann, Youngtown

Ahwatukee is no longer measured separately as the majority of listings are included under Phoenix rather than Ahwatukee. It would be misleading to present the statistics for homes entered under Ahwatukee, since they represent only a small sample of the homes in that area of Phoenix. For information about Ahwatukee we recommend using the ZIP code reports for 85044, 85045 and 85048 which fairly accurately define the boundaries of Ahwatukee.

Higley is no longer measured separately as, following the demise of its ZIP code 85236 in July 2007, the use of Higley as a city name has dropped to levels so low that statistics are no longer sufficiently meaningful. Almost all homes in Higley are now entered under the city name Gilbert.

Very Small Cities

These are cities with typical annual sales of single family detached homes less than 50. They are not measured. They comprise all the remaining cities defined by ARMLS, including:

Congress, Black Canyon City, Yarnell, Arlington, Morristown, etc.

Avg = Average

LT = Long Term

Mth = Month

Qtr = Quarter

SF-D - Single Family - Detached

sq. ft. = Square Foot or Square Feet

ST = Short Term

Yr = Year

Yrs = Years