The Cromford Report

Greater Phoenix - Residential Resale

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Standard membership of The Cromford Report ™ requires a subscription, and provides you with access to detailed data and analytical charts.

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The Cromford Report ...

is owned and produced by Cromford Associates LLC, an Arizona limited liability company managed by Mike Orr and based in Mesa AZ.

Mike holds a masters degree in Mathematics from the University of Oxford in England and spent 31 years in the computer industry, working for IBM, Amdahl, Splash Technology and the Santa Cruz Operation. In his most recent positions he was President of Tarantella and CEO of Mobilearia.

He first started investing in real estate in 1976 and left the computer industry to focus on real estate in 2002.

Contact

mike@cromfordreport.com

The Cromford® Report provides detailed information to track the history and current status of the Greater Phoenix residential resale market and offers unique insight into its future direction.

Updated daily and usually published online within a few hours, this site is intended for anyone interested in the state of the market and how it affects their investments and livelihood. Our goal is to present data that is timely, informative and easy to understand - data not available anywhere else in this level of detail or immediacy.

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  1. January 16 - We have added a new chart showing Listings Under Contract by City on a weekly basis since July 2006. With the vastly increased use of UCB status over the last 3 years, it becomes more important to consider all listings under contract. This includes UCB status, formerly AWC, as well as listings in pending status. This chart supplements the Pending Listings by City charts. Many agents are habitually using UCB status instead of Pending status despite requests from ARMLS for them not to do so. The majority of UCB listings these days are really in what we would formerly have considered pending, but pending listings disappear from Zillow and Trulia. Since UCB listings are considered a subset of active listings they still appear on the online marketing web sites and this is believed to be a significant advantage by many, if not most, real estate agents. In fact some agents never use Pending status at all. As a result a significant proportion of UCB listings are not really soliciting backup offers and are not really active. They are really bait and switch listings until they are closed. To take account of this change of behavior we recommend using the Listings Under Contract chart for examining current demand patterns. The Pending Listing charts will understate current demand compared with earlier years. This effect has grown over the last 3 years since UCB was introduced and continues to grow. Over the next year we will be elevating the importance of Listings Under Contract and reducing the importance of Pending Listings data. Since this is a significant and complex change it will happen gradually over time rather than all at once. Our AWC/UCB counts only go back to July 2006, rather than January 2001.

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The content of the Cromford® Report is provided on a subscription basis to ARMLS subscribers. To access it for the first time you need to sign-up and obtain a user ID and password.

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Market Statistic
Reading
Extreme
Date
Annual Growth in Pending Listings -42.9% record low 1/18/14

These are based on the current millennium (2001 onwards). The figures shown are for the entire ARMLS area and all dwelling types are included. For-sale-by-owner, auctions and other non-MLS transactions are not included. For more detailed information on record highs and lows please see the Extremes section.

The Cromford® Report is designed to help you answer your questions about the Greater Phoenix residential real estate market. For example:

  • How does today's market compare with the same time last year?
  • Which price range is selling fastest over the last month?
  • In which city are REO buyers most active right now?
  • Which is the cheapest area to buy a resale home?
  • How long is it taking to sell a home in my ZIP code?
  • What is the balance of supply and demand for resale homes in my city?
  • What proportion of homes for sale are short sales or pre-foreclosures?
  • Where are prices changing fastest?
  • What percentage of listings are finding a buyer before they are canceled or expire?
  • Are today's list prices realistic compared with achieved sales prices?

You can find tools to help you answer all the above questions, and many more, within the Cromford® Report web-site.